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2018年04月23日 15:51:35 | 作者:健养生 | 来源:新华社
China is not always synonymous with the concept of innovation. The country is instead more commonly seen as one that piggybacks on the ideas of others, using its vast labour force to mass produce the same goods more cheaply.中国并非总是创新的同义词。相反,中国更经常地被视为一个“山寨大国”,即蹭其它国家的创意、用自己的庞大劳动力以更低成本生产相同产品的国家。However, a report published on Wednesday by the McKinsey Global Institute claims innovation will need to account for as much as half of China’s economic growth if Beijing is to hit consensus growth forecasts of 5.5 to 6.5 per cent a year in the coming decade.然而,麦肯锡全球研究所(MGI)周三发布的一份报告声称,如果未来十年中国想实现5.5%至6.5%的普遍增长率预测值,那么创新对中国经济增长的贡献率需要达到一半。“If we don’t see innovation on the scale that we are advocating, we would call the growth forecasts into question,” says Jonathan Woetzel, a Shanghai-based director of the institute. “[If we do], the resulting ‘China effect’ on innovation has the potential to disrupt markets and industries and could reshape global competition.”“如果创新达不到我们主张的规模,那么我们将对上述增长率预测打个问号,”MGI驻上海的主管华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)说,“(如果达到了),随之对创新产生的‘中国效应’有潜力颠覆各个市场和行业,并可能重塑全球竞争格局。”MGI points out that the traditional drivers of China’s economic growth are weakening. Because of its ageing population, China’s labour force could peak as early as next year and fall 16 per cent by 2050, it predicts.MGI指出,中国经济增长的几个传统引擎都在失去动力。MGI预测,由于人口老龄化,中国的劳动力可能最早在明年见顶,到2050年减少16%。Moreover, with the easy yards aly made, MGI says it now takes 60 per cent more capital to produce one unit of gross domestic product than it typically did between 1990 and 2010.此外,由于容易摘取的果实已经摘取,麦肯锡全球研究所表示,如今单位国内生产总值(GDP)所用的资本较1990年至2010年期间的一般水平高了60%。As the first chart shows, .4 of capital are now needed to produce of Chinese GDP, up from .4 between 1990 and 2010. MGI forecasts this will rise to .6 by the second half of the next decade, closer to current norms elsewhere in the world.如第一张图表(见下)所示,目前生产1美元GDP所需资本为5.4美元,高于1990年至2010年期间的3.4美元。MGI预测,到下个十年的后五年,这个数字将升高至7.6美元,向世界其他地区当前的普遍水平靠拢。Investment is also likely to be constrained by China’s rising debt load that, at 282 per cent of GDP, according to MGI, is higher than in the likes of the US and Germany.投资也可能受到中国日益升高的债务负担的拖累。MGI数据显示,目前中国债务对GDP的比例为282%,高于美国和德国等国家的比例。With growth in energy supply also likely to slow, MGI forecasts that GDP growth arising from an increased supply of the factors of production (labour, fixed capital and energy) will be only 3.4 per cent a year in the decade to 2025, down from 6.2 per cent between 2000 and 2010 and 5.6 per cent from 2010 to 2014.考虑到能源供应的增长也可能会放慢,MGI预测,截至2025年的十年里,增加生产要素(劳动力、固定资本和能源)投入对中国GDP增长率的贡献将仅为3.4个百分点,低于2000年至2010年的6.2个百分点和2010年至2014年的5.6个百分点。To a large extent this is built into GDP forecasts, with expected growth of about 6 per cent in the next decade well below the 10.5 per cent rate achieved between 2000 and 2010 and the 8 per cent level seen from 2010 to 2014.GDP预测在很大程度上已经将这个因素考虑了进去:未来十年中国增长率预测值为约6%,远低于2000年至2010年期间的10.5%、以及2010年至2014年期间的8%。But multifactorial productivity growth, squeezing more output out of each unit of input — which MGI is loosely defining as innovation — would still need to account for 35 to 50 per cent of future economic growth for China to meet expectations, up from 30 per cent at present (see the second chart).但多要素生产率(MFP,也称为全要素生产率(TFP)——译者注)增长(即从单位投入里获得更多产出,这也是MGI对创新的宽泛定义)对未来经济增长的贡献率仍需从现在的30%提高到35%至50%,中国才能实现预期增速(如第二张图表所示,见右图)。Using this definition of innovation, Mr Woetzel argues that China “has not only made more progress than it is given credit for, but it has also created new approaches to innovation that are faster, cheaper and can work on a global scale”.使用对创新的这一定义,华强森提出,中国“不但取得了比外界承认的更快的进展,而且创造出了速度更快、成本更低且在全球范围内适用的新的创新途径”。Yet this progress has been patchy. MGI divides industries into four types of innovation. It argues China has made most progress in what it terms “efficiency-driven” innovation, sectors where improvements in production processes, product design and supply-chain management are central, lowering costs and accelerating time to market.不过,这一进步是分布不均的。MGI把各行业按照创新的类型分为四类。MGI认为,中国在属于其所称的“效率驱动型”创新的那一类行业中取得的进展最大,在这类行业里,生产流程、产品设计和供应链管理的改进发挥核心作用,其结果是成本降低、产品进入市场的时间缩短。In nine of the 12 efficiency-driven industries MGI analysed, such as solar panels, generic pharmaceuticals and steel, China’s share of global revenues is greater that its share of global GDP, at some 12 per cent as of 2013 (see the last chart).在MGI分析的12个效率驱动型行业中的9个行业,比如太阳能板、仿制药和钢铁,中国占全球收入的份额都高于2013年中国占全球GDP约12%的份额(如最后一张图表所示,见下)。Its success stories include Broad Construction, which assembled a 57-storey hotel in Changsha in just 19 days from prefabricated components, and Everstar, which allows consumers to customise clothing and receive the finished goods within 72 hours.中国在这一类行业的成功典范包括远大可建(Broad Construction)和爱斯达(Everstar)。前者使用预制模块化材料,仅用19天便在长沙盖起了一栋57层的高楼,后者提供定制饰,顾客可在72小时内收到成品。The country has also made headway in “customer-focused” industries, defined as ones where innovation involves “identifying and addressing customer needs to develop new products”.中国也在“以客户为中心的”行业里取得了进展,入选这一类别的行业需要满足的条件是,行业内的创新涉及“找出并应对客户需求,从而开发出新产品”。Here China has an outsized share of three of MGI’s seven sectors: household appliances, internet software and services, and internet retailing.在这个类别里,中国在MGI所考察的7个行业的其中3个——家用电器、互联网软件和务、以及网上零售——占据的份额超过中国占全球GDP的份额。It remains weak in some sectors, such as smartphones, but this may be changing. MGI gives the example of smartphone maker Xiaomi, which has 1m “fans” who vote online for new features that then appear in weekly software updates.在智能手机等另外一些行业,中国的表现还不突出,但是情况或许正在改变。MGI给出了智能手机制造商小米(Xiaomi)的例子,后者拥有100万“粉丝”。这些粉丝在网上对一些新功能进行投票,入选的功能随后就会出现在每周的软件更新中。However, McKinsey points to significant weaknesses in two other arenas. In engineering-based industries, where companies innovate by solving engineering problems, it found Chinese companies generated 41 per cent of global railway equipment revenues and 20 per cent of those for wind power but a disproportionately small share of revenue in areas such as autos and commercial aviation.然而,麦肯锡指出,中国在其他两类行业的表现明显较差。在基于制造的行业(在这些行业,企业是通过解决工程问题来创新)中,麦肯锡发现,中国企业占据全球铁路设备收入的41%,占据风力发电设备收入的20%,但是在汽车和商用航空等行业占据的收入份额小得不成比例。The picture is worse still for science-based industries, where innovation involves making discoveries and turning them into products. In each of the four sectors here, such as branded pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, China is a weakling.在以科学为基础的行业,情况更糟,这里的创新包括探索新发现并将之转化为产品。在专利药和生物科技等4个行业中,中国的表现无一例外都很弱。Overall, MGI says China’s service industries are only 15 to 30 per cent as productive as the average across the (mostly advanced) OECD nations. Internet-based innovations to expand services, improve quality and make service delivery more efficient could create value of 0bn to .4tn a year by 2015, the institute says.总而言之,MGI称,中国的务业行业的生产率仅相当于经合组织(OECD)国家(大多为发达国家)平均水平的15%-30%。该机构称,到2015年,通过扩大务范围、提高务品质和务提供效率,基于互联网的创新每年可创造5500亿美元至1.4万亿美元的价值。In manufacturing, China’s advantage of low labour costs has started to erode. However, MGI says its still relatively cheap labour and “superior ecosystem” give it “compelling” advantages in “next-generation” manufacturing, encapsulating advances such as the embedding of internet-of-things sensors in all products, advanced robotics and 3D printing.在制造业,中国劳动力成本低廉的优势已经开始消失。然而,MGI称,中国仍然相对低廉的劳动力成本及“优越的行业生态环境”使之在“新一代”制造业——比如在所有产品中嵌入物联网传感器、高级机器人以及3D打印等先进制造业——占据“绝对”优势。The could create value of 0bn to 0bn a year by 2025, making a total of tn to .2tn a year, although this still falls short of the tn to tn a year McKinsey calculates China will have to generate from innovation to meet consensus growth forecasts.到2025年,这每年可以创造4500亿至7800亿美元的价值,再加上基于互联网的创新每年可以创造的价值,总值可达到每年1万亿至2.2万亿美元,不过这仍未达到3万亿至5万亿美元的目标值——据麦肯锡估计,中国要达到普遍增长率预测值,每年从创新中创造的价值必须达到这个范围。It says Beijing can do more to help by expanding access to capital for small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs, enhancing the quality of regional innovation clusters, improving protection of intellectual property and upgrading the allocation of funding for scientific research.麦肯锡称,中国可以通过为中小型企业和创业者扩大融资渠道、提升地区创新集群的质量、加强知识产权保护、以及增加科研经费拨款来推动这一目标的实现。“China has the potential to evolve from an ‘innovation sponge’, absorbing and adapting existing technology and knowledge from around the world, into a global innovation leader,” says Mr Woetzel.“中国有潜力从只吸收和修改世界各地现有技术和知识的‘创新海绵’,转变为全球创新领头羊,”华强森表示。“Our analysis suggests that this transformation is possible, though far from inevitable.”“我们的分析表明,这种转型尽管远非板上钉钉,但却是可能实现的。” /201510/405511Six suspects in East China#39;s Shandong Province were transferred to the local procuratorate after being caught with over 10 million yuan in counterfeit cash, media reported last Thursday.据相关媒体上周四报道,中国东部山东省的6名嫌疑人由于制造1000多万元假币被捕后,于日前被移送到地方检察院。The local public security bureau in Zhifu, Yantai, busted a workshop making fake money in a rented house, in addition to three other locations where knockoff notes were processed, where the police seized 50,000 20 yuan banknotes, the Legal Daily reported.据《法制日报》报道,烟台市芝罘区当地公安机关在一家出租屋捣毁了制造假币的窝点,除了另外三个二次加工假币的窝点,警方还查获了5万张20元假币。The police said the main suspect surnamed Li, 23, sold his printed money by the kilogram in 27 cities across 15 provinces since he started his business in February.警方表示,自2月份开始伪造假币以来,23岁的主要嫌疑人李某按公斤出售他印制的假币,已经销往15个省份的27个城市。The money was produced by his printers and computers in the rented house and distributed to dealers in other provinces who would then process the bills.这些假币是他用打印机和电脑在出租屋里进行生产的,并分发给其他省份的假币制造者,然后他们再次加工假币。Another five of Li#39;s associates were detained in East China#39;s Jiangsu Province, South China#39;s Guangdong Provinces and Central China#39;s Hunan Province after Zhifu police investigated the ring for months.芝罘警方调查该案件几个月后,李某的另外五名同伙分别在中国东部的江苏省、南部的广东省和中部的湖南省被逮捕。With his skills, Li had become well-known among counterfeiters since he had the knowledge of graphic design, computer skills and Photoshop. His counterfeit banknotes were not easy to identify, particularly at night.由于具有图形设计、计算机技能和修图等知识,李某凭借他的技能在假币制造者中出了名。他的假币不容易识别,尤其是在晚间。The police have uncovered over 4,100 cases related to counterfeit cash in the past six years, seizing more than 2.2 billion yuan in fake bills, the Xinhua News Agency reported in August.据新华社今年8月份的报道,警方在过去六年间破获了4100多起与假币有关的案件,共缴获了超过22亿元的假币。 /201612/484641The UN has warned that 50,000 Nigerians, ensnared by an insurgency that the government says has been all but defeated, are at risk of starving to death.联合国(UN)警告称,尼日利亚有5万人正面临饿死的危险。该国正爆发叛乱,尼日利亚政府表示几乎已将其挫败。Large rural areas in Borno State in Nigeria’s north-east are too dangerous both for UN staff to get to and for civilians to escape from, the UN has told the Financial Times.联合国告诉英国《金融时报》,尼日利亚东北部尔诺州的大片农村地区太过危险,联合国人员无法进入,平民也无法逃离。Some 54,000 people are believed to be living in a “catastrophic” situation, the highest level of food emergency in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, a scale used to grade the nature and severity of such crises.据信,大约5.4万人生活在“灾难性”状况中,根据联合国衡量粮食安全危机性质和严重程度的标准——粮食安全阶段综合分类(Integrated Food Security Phase Classification)——他们处于最高级别的粮食紧急状况中。Another 780,000 people in Borno and two neighbouring north-eastern states are in the second-highest category of hunger-related emergency. Some 3.9m people in the north-east need food assistance because their livelihoods have been disrupted by the conflict.在尔诺和临近的尼日利亚东北部两个州,另有78万人处于第二高级别的饥饿状况中。在尼日利亚东北部,约有390万人需要食品援助,因为国内冲突破坏了他们的生计。Mobile networks in the north-east have been destroyed, hindering UN attempts to verify the extent of the crisis and to publicise the impending disaster.尼日利亚东北部的移动网络受到破坏,这阻碍了联合国确认危机严重程度和将迫在眉睫的灾难公诸于众。Unlike in Syria, where photographs of starving residents distributed by activists sparked intervention to break the siege of Madaya, there are no photos of starving Nigerians to galvanise a response.与叙利亚不同,没有任何有关饥饿的尼日利亚人的照片来促使外界做出回应。而在叙利亚,活动人士发布的饥饿居民的照片引发了解除马达雅(Madaya)所受围困的干预。President Muhammadu Buhari said last year that Boko Haram had been “militarily degraded” after the army won back territory and towns seized by militants in 2014. But most of the “liberated” areas are still not accessible to aid agencies because of security concerns, according to the UN.去年,尼日利亚总统穆罕默杜布哈里(Muhammadu Buhari)表示,在2014年军队夺回被武装分子占领的土地和城镇后,科哈拉姆(Boko Haram)的“军事实力已被削弱”。但据联合国称,由于安全担忧,援助组织仍无法进入多数“已被解放”的地区。“We are finding it very difficult to access most parts of Borno State where the need is the highest,” Toby Lanzer, the UN’s top official in west Africa, told the FT.联合国驻西非最高官员托比瀠泽尔(Toby Lanzer)告诉英国《金融时报》:“我们发现进入最需要援助的尔诺州的多数地区非常困难。”Although the army has regained control of most towns and villages, it has not secured vast rural stretches where militants are still moving freely, say western diplomats and security officials.西方外交和安全官员表示,尽管尼日利亚军队重新控制了多数城镇和村庄,但尚未夺取武装分子仍在自由活动的大片农村地区。Hundreds of thousands of Nigerians fled to the Borno State capital of Maiduguri in 2014 during the height of the insurgency. But those who stayed in their villages or were displaced have no route to safer ground and are at risk because relief cannot reach them.2014年,在叛乱最严重时期,数十万尼日利亚人逃往尔诺州首府迈杜古里。但那些留在村子里的人或流离失所的人却无法到达更安全的地方,由于无法获得救济,他们正面临危险。Femi Adesina, Mr Buhari’s spokesman, nevertheless told the FT that the government had full access to the north-east.然而,布哈里的发言人费米阿德西纳(Femi Adesina)告诉英国《金融时报》,尼日利亚政府完全可以进入该国东北部地区。The “famine-like” conditions in Nigeria have been caused by “very unfortunate circumstances rather than a deliberate ploy to trap people”, Mr Lanzer added.兰泽尔补充称,尼日利亚“类似饥荒”的状况是由“非常不幸的局势、而非故意困住民众的阴谋”导致的。The “stuck” communities cannot sustain themselves, Mr Lanzer said, as they are unable to move their cattle for grazing, farm their land or trade across northern borders as they have done for centuries.兰泽尔表示,这些“被困住”的地区无法维持自己的生计,因为人们无法像几个世纪以来所做的那样逐草放牛、耕种土地或跨过北部边境从事贸易。He warned that if the UN and the government “don’t manage to help people get out and trade and farm and tend to their livestock”, the crisis could worsen dramatically.他警告称,如果联合国和尼日利亚政府“不能帮助人们走出困境、从事贸易、耕种土地和照管自己的牲畜”,这场危机可能会严重恶化。Critics say the UN’s response has been no more urgent than the government’s, and blame the agency for not making greater efforts to reach the hardest hit communities.批评者表示联合国的回应并不比尼日利亚政府更紧急,他们指责联合国未能做出更大努力进入受到最严重打击的地区。“It’s about the political will to access them. We could be in a lot of places we’re not,” said an Abuja-based UN aide.驻阿布贾的一名联合国助理表示:“这关乎进入这些地区的政治意愿。我们可以进入我们现在没有进入的许多地区。“The question is, will be able to reach them in time?”“问题是,我们能及时进入这些地区吗?” /201602/427493

Some of the world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to cut production for the first time in eight years, sending crude prices higher by more than 6 per cent.全球部分最大石油生产国八年来首次同意削减产量,此举令原油价格攀升逾6%。After more than four hours of talks in Algeria on Wednesday Opec committed itself to reducing output to between 32.5m barrels a day and 33m b/d, according to ministers.根据各国石油部长的说法,周三在阿尔及利亚开展过逾四小时的磋商之后,欧佩克(Opec)承诺自身要将日产量减至3250万桶到3300万桶之间。The agreement surprised oil traders who thought a consensus would be difficult to reach because of divisions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of Opec’s largest and most influential members. 这一协议让石油交易商十分震惊,他们本以为,由于欧佩克最有影响的两个最大国家沙特和伊朗间的分歧,这次会晤很难达成共识。Brent crude jumped .84 a barrel to .85.消息传来,布伦特(Brent)基准原油每桶跃升2.84美元,至每桶48.85美元。The push marks the first co-ordinated action to bolster crude prices that have battered the finances of producer economies since the oil collapse began two years ago. 此举是两年前油价开始崩盘以来,产油国首次协调一致地采取措施提振原油价格。此前,低迷的油价已对多个产油经济体的财政造成连续打击。The last time Opec cut production was during the financial crisis in 2008.欧佩克上次削减石油产量,是在2008年金融危机期间。It is also a shift in the Saudi-led Opec strategy of pumping flat out to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as US shale drillers.此举也标志着以沙特为首的欧佩克改变了策略,不再通过竭尽全力采油的方式,维持市场份额并对美国页岩油开采商等高成本石油生产商施加压力。But the lack of detail on how much each producer will limit output, if at all, will raise questions among oil analysts and other market observers on the execution and success of any deal in easing an oversupplied market.不过,公告缺少每个产油国将限制多少产量的细节——如果真的要限产的话,这会令石油业分析师和其他市场观察人士质疑:任何旨在缓解这个供过于求市场的协议,会不会真的付诸实施并取得成功。The new production target is a decrease of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from the 33.24m b/d the cartel pumped in August, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Opec.根据欧佩克编制的分析师估计数值,新的产量目标将日产量从欧佩克8月份的3324万桶减少了24万-74万桶。Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum resources, said Opec would set up a committee to work out how the reduction in production will be split among members. 尼日利亚石油部长伊曼纽尔#8226;伊笔#8226;卡希库(Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu)表示,欧佩克会成立一个委员会,制定减产量在成员国中的分配方案。It will report back to the group in November, which is when Opec plans to hold its next formal ministerial meeting in Vienna.欧佩克计划于11月份在维也纳召开下次正式部长级会议,届时该委员会将向欧佩克报告进展。The amount of oil taken off the market will determine how successful the deal is in alleviating a supply glut. 该协议能否成功缓解供应过剩状况,取决于市场中减少的石油流入量。Oil analysts and people familiar with Saudi oil policy believe between 700,000 and 1m b/d needed to be taken off the market to have a meaningful impact on global supplies and prices.石油分析师及熟悉沙特石油政策的人士认为,要想对全球石油供应和价格产生显著影响,石油日产量需减少70到100万桶。 /201610/469310

U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump tweeted Tuesday that Barack Obama ;will go down as perhaps the worst president in the history of the ed States; after Obama called Trump ;unfit; to lead.星期二,在奥巴马称川普不“适合”当总统之后,川普也发表推文说,奥巴马“有可能作为美国历史上最差的总统而载入史册。;I think the Republican nominee is unfit to serve as president. I said that last week and he keeps on proving it,; Obama said Tuesday at the White House.奥巴马星期二在白宫说,“我认为这位共和党总统候选人不适合当美国总统。上星期,我说过这个话,他不断地明了这一点。”But a former U.S. Marine attending a Trump rally Tuesday in Virginia told VOA he thinks Trump will be ;a great commander-in-chief.;但是,星期二,参加川普在维吉尼亚州集会的一位前美国海军陆战队员告诉美国之音,他认为,川普将是“一个伟大的总司令”。The outspoken Trump added another controversy to his growing list Tuesday when he accepted a Purple Heart medal from a retired lieutenant colonel before the rally in Ashburn, Virginia. Trump said the former soldier told him the gesture was intended to show confidence in him.直言不讳的川普星期二在维吉尼亚州阿什本的一个集会上接受一个退伍中校赠与的紫心勋章而再度引发争议。川普说,这位退伍老兵告诉他,这么做是为了表达对他的信任。The Purple Heart is awarded to a U.S. serviceman or woman wounded in combat, or posthumously awarded to someone killed in battle. It is a sacred U.S. military tradition.紫心勋章是授予在战斗中受伤或在战场上阵亡的美国军人的荣誉。它是美国军队的一个神圣传统。Trump, who says he regrets never serving in the military, said he was honored by the soldier#39;s gift. The audience chuckled when he said he had ;always wanted to get the Purple Heart. This was much easier.;川普说,他后悔自己从未在军队役。他说这个士兵的礼物让他感到荣幸。他还说自己“一直都想得到一枚紫心勋章,这么得到容易得多”,这句话引起听众的低声轻笑。But a spokesman for the Military Order of the Purple Heart organization, John Bircher, was not amused.但是紫心勋章组织的发言人伯彻却不觉得好笑。;It is absolutely horrible for anyone to wear or have the Purple Heart medal who is not entitled to it,; Bircher told CBS News.他对哥伦比亚广播公司新闻节目说:“任何人佩戴或拥有不属于他的紫心勋章都是极其恶劣的事情。”;Donald Trump did not get the Purple Heart and there#39;s no #39;easy way#39; to get it. I don#39;t think he has any clue as to the meaning of the Purple Heart medal.;他或:“川普没有得到过紫心勋章,而且得到它是没有捷径的。我认为,他根本不了解紫心勋章的意义。” /201608/458375

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