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2018年02月21日 15:11:37 | 作者:当当助手 | 来源:新华社
There is an impulse in Europe’s political discourse, by no means the exclusive property of the left, that assumes nothing bad happens in the world without it being somehow the fault of the west in general and the US in particular. This is the mindset that casts Saddam Hussein as a victim, Hugo Chávez a hero and Russia’s Vladimir Putin as a bulwark against Nato expansionism. The mass murder of Parisian concertgoers and Russian tourists may be crimes, but they are surely also the product of unprincipled great power intervention.欧洲的政治话语中存在一种冲动(绝非左翼特有),它假定世界上一切坏事在某种程度上都是西方——尤其是美国——的过错。正是这种心态把萨达姆侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)说成受害者,将乌戈查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)说成英雄,将俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔渠Vladimir Putin)说成抵御北约(Nato)扩张主义的堡垒。对巴黎音乐会观众和俄罗斯游客的大规模杀戮也许是犯罪行为,但它们肯定也是大国无原则干预的产物。Listen to Jeremy Corbyn. The leader of Britain’s Labour party cannot censure the outrages of extremist jihadis without reference to the supposed crimes of the US: the siege of Falluja, say, or killing rather than arraigning Osama bin Laden. “We have created a situation where some of these forces have grown,was Mr Corbyn’s reflection on the slaughter in Paris.听听杰里米科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)的言论吧。这位英国工Labour)领导人在谴责极端主义圣战者的暴行时,非要提及美国的所谓罪行不可:比如对费卢杰(Fallujah)的围攻(004年伊拉克战争期间美军对盘踞在该市的武装分子发起的扫荡战役——译者注),或者击毙奥萨马本拉Osama bin Laden)而没有将其移送司法。对于巴黎恐袭,科尔宾是这样反思的:“我们创造了令这些势力中的一部分壮大的背景。”There is no shortage of criticisms to be made of the west and they do not start or end with the invasion of Iraq. I find it shocking that Saudi Arabia is still treated as a staunch ally even as it exports the extreme version of Islam that informs the murderous credo of the jihadis. Then there is a welcome afforded Egypt’s president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi whose violent repression of the Muslim Brotherhood opens the door to Isis. With its oil and autocrats, the Middle East is a graveyard for anything pretending to be a principled foreign policy.可以批评西方的地方多得很,入侵伊拉克只是其中一件值得批评的事。我感到震惊的是,沙特阿拉伯仍被视为一个坚定盟友,即便该国对外输出极端版本的伊斯兰,为圣战者的残暴信条提供理论“启发”。此外,埃及总统阿卜杜勒法塔赫帠Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)上台也受到欢迎,而正是他对穆斯林兄弟Muslim Brotherhood)的暴力镇压,为“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国ISIS)开启了大门。中东的石油和威权统治者,令该地区成为任何貌似有原则的外交政策的坟场。None of these hypocrisies can be held up in exculpation of the tyranny of the self-styled Islamic State. Those who think it better to explain than condemn forget that by far the greatest number of victims of Isiscrimes are fellow Muslims in Iraq, Syria and, most recently, Beirut. Or that the caliphate replaces liberty with theocratic intolerance, subjugates women and murders homosexuals. The idea that the west should shoulder blame rests on a corrosive moral relativism blind to the essential evil of those who kill and maim. Indiscriminate murder is wicked. It demands unvarnished condemnation. Full stop.但这些虚伪不能用来为“伊斯兰国”的暴行开脱。那些更愿意解释——而不是谴责——的人们忘了,ISIS罪行的绝大多数受害者是伊拉克、叙利亚境内(最近还有贝鲁特)的穆斯林。他们还忘了,这个“哈里发”用不容异端的神权取代自由,剥夺女性地位,杀戮同性恋者。那种认为西方应该受到谴责的观点,源自一种腐蚀性的道德相对论,对那些滥杀无辜的人的基本邪恶视而不见。不分青红皂白的杀戮是邪恶的。这种行为应该受到没有保留的谴责。其它都是废话。You could ask whether anyone cares what Mr Corbyn thinks. The Labour leader’s formative memories are of the Vietnam war and the nasty campaigns waged by the CIA in central and Latin America during the 1970s. He has not stepped out of the time warp. He will never be prime minister. Even Fidel Castro thinks it is time to move on.你可能会问,有谁会关心科尔宾的想法吗?对这位工党领导人来说,塑造其思想的记忆是越南战争,以970年代美国中央情报局(CIA)在中美洲和拉丁美洲发起的下三滥行动。他至今没有走出这种时间上的错位。他永远都不会成为英国首相。就连菲德尔愠斯特罗(Fidel Castro)都认为该跟上时代了。Yet Mr Corbyn’s response illuminates a broader strand of European thinking a complacency that takes for granted the Enlightenment and has sapped the willingness to defend its essential underpinnings. Somehow it is easier to blame the west than to admit that there are those for whom freedom, tolerance and the rule of law are natural enemies.不过,科尔宾的回应反映了一股更广泛的欧洲思潮,一种对启蒙运动(Enlightenment)采取想当然态度、捍卫其根本柱的意愿逐渐淡薄的自满。不知怎么地,比起承认世界上有一些人把自由、宽容和法治视为天敌,责怪西方更容易一些。We saw this when Mr Putin overturned the continent’s postwar security order by sending his army into Ukraine. The reaction of many on the right as well as the left was to mutter that the fault lay with Nato’s decision to welcome the new democracies of eastern and central Europe.当普京把部队派往乌克兰,从而颠覆欧洲战后安全秩序时,我们就曾看到这种情况。许多左翼(以及右翼)人士的反应是,抱怨这是北约的过错,因为这个联盟决定欢迎中、东欧新的民主政体。There are many more who have decided in the wake of Edward Snowden’s revelations that the principal threat to Europe’s freedoms comes from the electronic “snoopingof domestic intelligence services rather than from jihadis wielding Kalashnikovs and wearing suicide vests. Hopefully the balance will shift somewhat in the aftermath of the Paris attacks.在爱德华斯诺Edward Snowden)爆料之后,更多人认定,欧洲自由面临的首要威胁来自国内情报机构的电子“窥视”,而不是手持AK47突击步、身穿自杀式炸弹马甲的圣战者。巴黎遭遇恐怖袭击后,这种观念有望转变。The original sin was the assumption that the end of the cold war did indeed mark the end of history. The complacency straddled the boundary of economics and politics. Liberal markets would create permanent prosperity, while political pluralism would become the default system of governance. The international order would be remade in the image of European multilateralism.这一切的原罪在于假定冷战结束真的标志着历史终结。这种自满弥漫了经济和政治两个领域。自由化的市场将创造永恒的繁荣,而政治多元化将成为默认的治理体制。国际秩序将以欧洲的多边主义为模板得到重塑。The first of the illusions was shattered by the financial crash of 2008, but governments and electorates have held on more tenaciously to the idea that democracy is the natural destination of politics. When things have gone wrong the terrorist attacks of al-Qaeda and now Isis and Russia’s revanchism the instinct has been to treat them as exceptions. The curtains, though, have now been torn open, not least by the influx of refugees fleeing violent chaos on Europe’s periphery.上述幻觉中的第一个被2008年金融危机打破,然而各国政府和选民更为执着地坚守“民主政体是政治的天然目的地”这个观念。当事情出错时——比如基地组al-Qaeda)和现在的ISIS发动的恐怖袭击,以及俄罗斯的复仇主义——他们的本能是将其视为例外现象。不过,如今幕布已被撕开,其推动因素包括逃离欧洲的暴力动荡局势的难民涌入欧洲。What is required is a iness to fight. This means a lot more than simply sending more warplanes to attack Isis in its strongholds, though the case for fiercer military action is a strong one. Fighting means recognising that the values that form our societies cannot be taken for granted; that the postmodern order imagined after 1989 is at very best some way off; and that even as they confront the enemies of freedom and tolerance European governments must address deprivation and marginalisation within their societies.目前需要的是对抗意愿。这其中的内涵远不止出动更多战机打击盘踞在窝点的ISIS——尽管加大军事行动力度的理由十分充足。所谓对抗,意味着要认识到这样几点:不能对构成西方社会的价值观抱想当然态度989年之后想象出来的后现代秩序,往好了说也还有相当长一段路要走;即便在与自由和宽容的敌人作斗争之际,欧洲各国政府也必须解决其社会内部的贫穷和边缘化问题。This in turn demands a willingness to admit there will be costs. But then anyone who has glanced at the history of the 20th century will know that today’s liberties came at a price. Nor should we imagine that governments will not have to make ugly compromises not least in Syria if some order is to be restored.这进而要求各方愿意承认会有代价。不过,只要看一0世纪的历史就会明白,当今的自由也是付出一定代价后才得到的。我们也不应该想象,为了恢复一定程度的秩序,政府将不必做出丑陋的妥协——尤其是在叙利亚问题上。Above all, it is time for Europeans to celebrate what they have built and recognise it is under threat. The streets of Paris this week have seen a heartening resolve not to be cowed by the murderers. If Europe does not stand up for its values, who else will?最重要的是,欧洲人应该庆祝他们取得的成就,同时意识到这种成就面临威胁。最近,人们在巴黎街头上表现出不被凶手吓倒的令人鼓舞的决心。如果欧洲不坚守其价值观,还有谁会这么做呢? /201511/412210

U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter, who arrived in South Korea on Thursday, says Pyongyangs recent missiles tests are a reminder of how dangerous the situation is on the Korean peninsula.美国国防部长卡特说,平壤最近试射导弹提醒人们注意朝鲜半岛非常危险的局势。卡特是星期四抵达韩国的。Speaking at Yokota Air Base in Japan before departing for South Korea, Carter told reporters he was ;flattered; if the North Korean missile launches were meant to be a ;welcome message; for him.在离开日本前往韩国之前,卡特在横田空军基地对记者说,如果朝鲜发射导弹是送给他的“欢迎信号”,他会感到“荣幸”。The short-range missiles were launched this week into the sea off North Koreas west coast. North Korea also fired four missiles in a similar test last Friday.朝鲜本星期向其西部沿海发射了短程导弹。上星期五,朝鲜在一次类似的试射中发射了四枚导弹。It is not unusual for the North to conduct such tests ahead of visits to the region by U.S. officials or during moments of heightened tension with its foe, South Korea.当美国官员访问该地区之前,或平壤与韩国之间的关系趋于紧张之际,朝鲜经常会试射导弹。Seouls defense ministry on Thursday called this weeks test routine and said the projectiles did not represent a serious security threat to South Korea.星期四,韩国国防部将朝鲜本星期试射导弹称为“例行公事”,并表示此举并不构成对韩国安全的严重威胁。South Korean officials have also said the launches appear to be a response to the ongoing Foal Eagle joint military exercise between the U.S. and South Korea.韩国官员还说,朝鲜试射导弹看来是对美韩举行代号为“雏鹰”的联合军演做出的反应。来 /201504/369111

WASHINGTON (AP) Fears of war between Taiwan and China have eased in recent years, but the growing gap in their military capabilities has prompted a U.S. think tank to lay out a radical new approach in how Taiwan could defend itself if China invaded, relying less on conventional forces and more on guerrilla-style tactics and cyberwarfare.华盛顿(美联社)- 近些年来台湾与中国之间的战争担忧在逐渐减少,然而他们间的军事实力的鸿沟促使美国智库设计了一套全新的防御中国入侵的方案,更少的依赖传统军力,更多的使用游击式战术和网络战。The nongovernment Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is wading into delicate territory. Relations have between democratic Taiwan and communist-governed China have improved as they have forged economic agreements —a development welcomed by the ed States.非政府智库“战略暨预算评估中心”涉入的是一个微妙的领域。皿煮的台湾与共产主义管治的中国之间的关系正在得到改善,双方在缔结各种经济协议,美国对这些进展是欢迎的。Washington, however, remains obligated by U.S. law to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself. U.S. lawmakers have accused the Obama administration of refusing to sell Taiwan new fighter jets and submarines for fear of angering Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the self-governing island.不过华盛顿有义务根据美国法律向台湾提供自卫的手段。美国国会指责奥巴马政府因担心惹恼声称拥有这个自治岛屿主权的北京而拒绝向台湾出售新战机和潜艇。Congress last week approved the possible sale of four U.S. frigates to Taiwan, drawing Chinese criticism, but Taiwan shows growing willingness to develop its own hardware. On Tuesday, it launched a stealthy, missile-launching corvette, the first of ship of its kind produced by Taiwan.国会上周批准可以向台湾销售四艘驱逐舰,引来了中国的批评,而台湾则有意向更多的自行开发本土军事硬件。在本周二,台湾推出了一款隐身导弹快船,这是同类舰船的第一艘台湾制造。But Chinas rapid military modernization has exposed a widening gulf between its forces and those on Taiwan, which spent .8 billion on its defense in 2013. According to a U.S. Defense Department estimate, Chinas military spending that year was 5 billion.然而与随着中国飞快的军事现代化,与台湾间的军力鸿沟已经愈拉愈大。台013年的防卫开是108亿美元,而据美国国防部估计,中国同年度的军事开为1450亿美元;With the resource gap approaching fourteen-to-one, even if Taiwan were to massively increase its defense budget, it would not reverse the cumulative advantages the PRC has accrued over the past two decades,; said the centers report, released this week. PRC stands for the communist-governed Peoples Republic of China.“当资金差额达到14时,无论台湾如何大幅增加防卫预算,都无力反转PRC在过去的几十年里累积的优势,”该中心本周发布的报告称。PRC是共产管治的中华人民共和国的缩写。A U.S. congressional advisory panel reported last month that China has about 2,100 combat aircraft and 280 naval ships available for a Taiwan conflict, and more 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles that could incapacitate Taiwans air force in the early hours of a conflict. Taiwan has about 410 combat aircraft and 90 naval combat ships.美国国会的一个顾问小组上月的一份报告称中国在台海冲突中可投100架战机80艘海军舰艇,超过1100枚短程弹道导弹可以在冲突开始的几个小时内瘫痪台湾空军。台湾有大约410架战机和90艘海军舰艇。The center advocates an ;asymmetric approach,; with Taiwan using lighter forces to counter rather than match Chinas strengths. While Taiwan increasingly emphasizes such tactics, its military modernization plan still calls for big, conventional acquisitions, the report says.该中心建议使用“非对称手段”,台湾应使用轻巧的军力去反击而非试图与中国比肩抗衡。报告称虽然台湾越来越重视这种战术,其军事现代化计划仍然偏向采购大型常规武备。For a fraction of the cost of building eight large diesel submarines that Taiwan is also planning, it could produce a fleet of 42 ;midget submarines; similar in size to craft that North Korea and Iran have, the report says. These submarines could provide warning and targeting data for anti-ship cruise missiles deployed on mobile launchers resembling trucks hauling shipping containers.报告称台湾计划以比建艘大型柴油潜艇少的多的费用建造一2艘“迷你潜艇”组成的编队,其大小与朝鲜和伊朗的类似。这些潜艇可以向布置在卡车集装箱上的移动式巡航导弹提供预警和目标数据。To combat Chinese fighter planes, the report proposes ;guerrilla; air defense, using hundreds of surface-to-air missiles a tactic it says proved effective for North Vietnam against the ed States during the Vietnam War. And if Chinese forces make it on land, guerrilla tactics to harass the occupying forces would slow their advance toward Taipei. It says cyberwar against Chinese battle networks would also be one of Taiwans viable deterrents and ;cost-imposing strategies.;至于对抗中国战机,报告则建议采用“游击式”防空,使用数以百计的地对空导弹,这是在越战中北越对抗美国的、被明是有效的战术。当中国军队登陆后,游击袭扰战术可以延滞登岛部队向台北推进。报告称对中国的战区网络实施网络战也是一项可行的杀手锏和“代价倍增战略“。The reports authors say asymmetric approaches toward defense would reduce Taiwanese dependence on U.S. armaments, and should also appeal to other neighbors concerned over Chinas military buildup.报告的作者称,使用非对称手段进行防御可以降低台湾对美国军备的依赖,对其他担忧中国军事实力的邻国也具有吸引力。Nations like Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia ;have territorial disputes with China and face many of the same challenges responding to the rapid Chinese military modernization looming over Taiwan,; the report says.报告称像越南、菲律宾和印尼等国”与中国有领土纠纷,而且同样面对中国快速现代化的军事压力。来 /201412/350789

Many Federal Reserve policy makers want to see more evidence that the US economy is strengthening before pulling the trigger on rate rises, according to minutes of a meeting marked by concerns over the Greek stand-off and the potential for a Chinese slowdown.美联Fed)议息会议的会议记录显示,多名美联储政策制定者希望在启动加息前看到更多美国经济走强的据。这次议息会议以对希腊对峙局面和中国放缓可能性的担忧为特征。Minutes from the meeting from June 16-17 struck a broadly positive tone about developments in the US economy, highlighting stronger consumer spending, corporate hiring, housing market activity and signs of wage growth. The stabilisation of oil prices and the dollar would reduce downward pressure on inflation, the Federal Open Market Committee noted.这次议息会议6日到17日召开。在该会议记录中,人们对美国经济发展的语气普遍比较积极,其中重点提到了美国消费出增大、企业用工人数增加和楼市交易活动增强,还有多种迹象表明薪资水平也出现了增长。联邦公开市场委员Federal Open Market Committee)指出,油价和美元的趋稳,会减轻通胀率的下行压力。Still, the minutes revealed a committee that remained divided over when the conditions would be right to raise rates from their current near-zero levels, noting that while some thought the conditions for a rate rise had nearly been met, a number of members were cautioning against a “premature decision不过,据会议记录披露,对于何时把利率从目前接近零的水平提升上来,委员会依然存在分歧。该会议记录指出,虽然部分人认为加息条件已接近成熟,还有多名与会人员则提醒人们不要“过早做出决定”。Participants gave “a number of reasons to be cautious in assessing the outlook the minutes said, with some members citing the possibility that consumer spending stays sluggish, or that there could be persistent drags on the economy from the high dollar and weak oil prices.会议记录表明,与会者提出了“多个谨慎评估前景的理由”。一些委员会成员提到了消费者出保持低迷的可能性。还有人提到,美元高企和油价疲软可能会持续拖累美国经济。Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, stressed last month that rate rises would be “gradualas she insisted the first rise could come this year. Projections unveiled by the committee showed a shallower path of tightening in the coming years, as well as an FOMC that was divided over whether there should be one, two or, indeed, no rate moves this year.美联储主席珍妮特#8226;耶伦(Janet Yellen)上月强调,加息将是“渐进式”的,并坚称首次加息将在今年启动。委员会披露的预测表明,未来几年紧缩将以较小的幅度展开。而且,在今年到底应该开展一次、两次还是根本不开展利率调整的问题上,委员会还存在分歧。The Fed in June left its target range for the Fed funds rate at zero to 0.25 per cent, the historic low it has occupied since 2008.6月,美联储偏离了其对联邦基金利率设立的目标区间——零利率.25%。自2008年以来美联储一直将目标区间保持在这一历史最低水平。Internationally, a great deal has changed since the FOMC’s June meeting.在联邦公开市场委员月会议后,国际事务发生了很大的变化。The chaos in Greece worsened sharply as the country imposed capital controls and bank closures and held a referendum in which official creditorsbailout terms were rejected. In China, a stock market rout has prompted Beijing to take drastic actions aimed at steadying the market, including bans on share sales by big stakeholders and the use of central bank money to bolster the market.希腊的混乱局势急剧恶化,该国实施了资本管控,关闭了,并举行了公投。在这次公投中,希腊拒绝了官方债权人的纾困条款。在中国,一轮股市崩盘已促使北京方面采取强力措施稳定股市。这些举措包括禁止大股东卖出股票,以及动用央行资金提振股市。Greece was a concern for many of the Fed policy makers in the meeting, the minutes showed. There was a risk of disruptions to euro area financial markets if the sides failed to resolve their differences, with “possible spillover effects on the ed States会议记录显示,许多美联储政策制定者担忧希腊问题。一旦各方未能解决分歧,欧元区金融市场存在瓦解的风险,“可能会对美国产生溢出效应”。Not all FOMC members appear overly concerned, however. John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, said in a speech on Wednesday that events in Greece were unlikely to overturn the “strong fundamentalsof the US economy, adding that a recent trip to China had made him less worried about that economy.不过,并非所有委员会成员都对此极为忧虑。旧金山联邦储备(San Francisco Fed)行长约翰#8226;威廉姆斯(John Williams)周三发表讲话说,希腊发生的事件不太可能扭转美国经济“强劲的基本面”。他还补充说,最近对中国的访问,令他减轻了对中国经济的忧虑。Some FOMC members said the conditions for raising rates had aly been met or would be met “shortly Labour market conditions had improved, with solid hiring levels, low unemployment insurance claims, and a shift of workers into more stable, higher skilled jobs. Several FOMC members said there were signs of improvement in the inflation outlook, especially after a stabilisation in the dollar and energy prices, which have been drags.一些委员会成员表示,加息的条件已经成熟,或者“很快”就会成熟。劳动力市场状况已经好转,用工人数稳步增长,领取失业救济的人数处于较低水平,就业者也已转向更稳定、更高技能的工作岗位。几名委员会成员表示,通胀前景也有改善迹象,尤其是一直是拖累因素的美元和能源价格趋于稳定。For most FOMC members, however, it was still too soon to advocate a rate move, even if conditions continued to improve steadily.然而,对于多数委员会成员来说,即使情况继续稳步改善,持利率调整仍然为时过早。来 /201507/385255

Yesterday Thailands military leadership went on state TV and announced they were seizing power. Vowing to ;restore peace in a short time and reform government policy,; the generals formed the ;National Peace and Order Maintaining Command,; dissolved the cabinet, threw out the constitution (itself the product of the countrys 2006 coup) and declared a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. TVs across the country broadcast a static image of a Thai military logo and patriotic songs as news of Thailands 19th military coup in 82 years—a handful of those werent successful—sunk in.52日,泰国军方领导人在国家电视台宣布夺取政权。为了“在短时间内恢复和平和改革政府政策”,军方成立了“国家和平与秩序维持司令部”(National Peace and Order Maintaining Command),并解散内阁,废除宪法(现行宪法也006年政变的产物),同时宣布,从晚上10点到凌晨5点实行宵禁。泰2年以来第19次军事政变(历次政变中,有些并没有成功)的消息传出后,全国电视频道均播放带有军方标志的静态画面和爱国歌曲。Not a first, certainly. Military coups in Thailand happen almost as often as American presidential elections. And though Thailands military had hinted they were done with all that, No. 19 was not totally unexpected. Gripped by political conflict for years (since its last coup, really), the country had recently arrived again at political impasse: For months there have been rumors of impending military intervention and on Tuesday, the military imposed martial law.这当然不是第一次。泰国的军事政变就像美国的总统大选一样频繁。虽然泰国军方曾经暗示,他们不会再发起政变,但第19次军事政变一点都不意外。经过持续多年的政治冲突(自上一次政变以来),泰国最近再次陷入了政治僵局:数月以来,一直有传闻称军方将进行干预,周二,泰国军方终于实行了戒严令。Still, the coups timing was peculiar—a sharp turn in an afternoon that had brought the nations political leaders to the Thai Army Club, ostensibly to talk their way to a resolution of the crisis. (This was the second day of army-brokered negotiations and a military spokesperson had characterized the first as positive.)这次政变的时机也颇为耐人寻味——当天下午,泰国军方召集各方政治领导人前往泰国陆军俱乐部,表面上看是要讨论如何解决危机,但后来的形势却急转直下。(这是泰国军方召集谈判的第二天,一位军方发言人曾称第一天的谈判是“积极的”。)Obviously, that didnt happen. The junta detained the political leaders, and then announced on TV they were taking over. They rounded up 150 more today, including Yingluck Shinawatra, the Thai Prime Minister who was ousted two weeks ago by the nations Constitutional Court.很显然,会谈没有成功。军方扣押了政治领导人,并在电视上宣布接管政权。第二天,泰国军方又逮捕50人,包括两周前被泰国宪法法院赶下台的总理英拉o西那瓦。So what does this mess mean for Thailand and its aly weakened那么,对于泰国及其已经非常脆弱的经济,这种混乱的局势到底意味着什么?As Ive written before, Thailand has traditionally weathered coups and political instability quite well. Its last coup, which ousted media tycoon-turned-PM Thaksin Shinawatra (the brother of the recently ousted prime minister) in 2006, was even called the ;silk coup; it went down so smoothly. The morning after tanks rolled in, Thais were on the streets presenting soldiers with roses.正如笔者之前所写,泰国曾成功渡过多次政变和政治动荡006年,从媒体大亨当选总理的他信o西那瓦(英拉的哥哥)在上一次政变中被赶下台。那次政变甚至被称作“丝绸政变”,最终也顺利结束。坦克滚滚而来的第二天上午,泰国人便走上街头,向士兵们送上玫瑰花。In a note earlier this week, Barnabas Gan, an analyst with OC Bank, wrote, ;Historically, a military intervention has been effective in ending political strife and establishing a legitimate government presence.; He added that martial law was likely just the Ya Kom, or ;bitter medicine,; the politically and economically ailing nation needed.上周早些时候,华侨(OC Bank)分析师巴纳巴斯o贾恩曾写道:“历史上,军事干预一直都是结束政治冲突和建立合法政府的有效方法。”他补充道,戒严令就像是“苦口良药”,正是在政治和经济上患病的国家所需要的。Yet, there are also reasons to think things will not be so, uh, rosy this go round. A lot has happened since 2006—much of it the fallout from that smooth-as-silk coup. Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, nevertheless remains popular and at the heart of Thailands political problems. (Since being deposed, hes had a brother-in-law, a younger sister, and a close business crony in the seat of power). His political base, much of which comes from Thailands rural provinces, is increasingly wealthy, educated, and unwilling to tolerate the undemocratic developments dealt them by the countrys elites. That anti-coup demonstrations sprung up today in Bangkok is a show of that and a sure sign the coup will only add to that list of grievances and to the likelihood of more violence.但我们也有理由认为,军事政变这一次不会那么美奀?自2006年以来发生了许多事——其中大多数都是上一次如丝绸般平滑的军事政变的副作用。目前住在迪拜的他信处于自我放逐的状态,但他在泰国国内仍然有许多持者,也是泰国政治问题的核心。(自被罢免之后,他信的夫、和商业密友曾先后执掌政权)。他的政治基础大多来自泰国农村,这些地区越来越富有,受教育程度也越来越高,民众不再愿意接受泰国精英阶层非民主的统治。曼谷今天爆发的反军事政变游行就表明了这种现状,更说明军事政变只会加深积怨,增加爆发更多暴力冲突的可胀?Ultimately, that will not be a good thing for business. Nor in the very short term, will the post-coup curfew, which has aly disrupted tourist plans—even Bangkoks notoriously seedy red light districts reportedly shut down—and night shifts at the nations many automobile plants. (Honda, Toyota and Ford are among car manufacturers there.)最后,军事政变对商业也没有好处。而在短时间内,政变之后的宵禁同样不利于商业,而且已经影响了游客的计划。据报道,连曼谷臭名昭著的红灯区也已被关闭。而且泰国许多汽车工厂的夜班工人也受到了影响。【泰国的汽车制造商包括本田汽车公司(Honda)、丰田汽车公司(Toyota)和福特汽车公司(Ford)等。】Adithep Vanabriksha, CIO at Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand, says much of the countrys economic fate relies on how quickly the junta can live up to their name. ;Going forward, key questions remain unanswered: who will lead the interim government, how long the military will remain in control, when the next elections will be held. The effectiveness of the interim government and the speedy return to electoral democracy will be key to reviving the sagging economy.;泰国安本资产管理公司(Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand)CIO阿迪蒂普表示,泰国的经济命运很大程度上取决于军方需要多长时间来兑现承诺。“未来的关键问题仍未解决:将由谁来领导临时政府,军方将掌权多长时间,何时举行下一次选举。临时政府的有效性和迅速恢复民主选举将是低迷的泰国经济能否实现振兴的关键。”Thats no easy task. He adds, ;Longer term, the underlying reasons for the deep divisions are still haunting Thailand and will need to be addressed before a lasting solution can be found.;但这并不容易。他补充说:“从更长远来看,造成深度分歧的根本原因依旧笼罩着泰国,只有解决了这些分歧,才能为泰国找到持久的解决方案。 /201405/302095

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